PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN JAVA–NUSA TENGGARA REGION BASED ON CMIP6 SCENARIO

Between 2018 and 2022, the primary regions for rice production in Indonesia were Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara, collectively contributing to approximately 61% of the annual rice production. Unfortunately, these islands are also most vulnerable to crop failure due to drought-induced water shortages. Therefore, this study predicted the occurrence, duration, and severity of meteorological drought in Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara using rainfall data from six climate models within the CMIP6 framework under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The observed data of 20 BMKG rainfall stations in the study area was acquired to adjust the output of the CMIP6 models using the Linear Scaling (LS) method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a 3-month scale (SPI-3) was used to analyze meteorological drought characteristics, such as frequency, duration, and intensity. The results showed that drought frequency increased and persisted for longer durations, particularly in the Nusa Tenggara region. However, compared to the observation period, drought intensity was predicted to decline in both scenarios compared to the observed period. The SSP585 scenario also indicated a higher level of drought compared to SSP245. © 2024, Asociatia Geographia Technica. All rights reserved.